Ruto Maintains Lead in New Poll as Opposition Support Remains Split

President William Ruto leads the latest presidential preference poll, with opposition support divided among several potential contenders ahead of the 2027 General Election.

A survey by Politrack Research Team, conducted from September 15 to 25, 2026, puts Ruto at 45.1 per cent. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna follows with 19.6 per cent, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has 10.3 per cent.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i records 7.2 per cent, followed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 6.0 per cent. The figures show Ruto with a sizeable lead, although he remains below the 50 per cent mark. 

Opposition support is spread across several prominent politicians, with Sifuna recording the highest share among them. A further 8.4 per cent of respondents are undecided. Other candidates, including George Wajackoyah, Martha Karua, David Maraga, James Orengo and Jimmy Wanjigi, received smaller shares of support.

The survey involved 20,419 respondents from across the country who participated through a text-based digital platform. Politrack said the poll has a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The findings come as Ruto continues to tour different parts of the country, combining political engagements with inspections and launches of government projects. His administration has continued to highlight infrastructure development, housing and public service delivery as key areas of its record.

Sifuna has also expanded his national political profile through the Linda Mwananchi movement and has increasingly been mentioned as a potential presidential candidate. His position in the poll places him ahead of several established opposition figures.

Gachagua has continued his political activities through the Democracy for Citizens Party, including engagements with Kenyans living abroad. Kalonzo remains involved in discussions on wider opposition cooperation, while Matiang’i continues to feature in political discussions ahead of the 2027 election.

The survey also found that public opinion on the country's direction is closely divided. Some 45.2 per cent of respondents said Kenya was moving in the right direction, compared with 44.6 per cent who said the country was on the wrong path.

The difference between the two groups is within the poll's margin of error. Another 10.2 per cent said they were uncertain about the country's direction.

Respondents gave mixed assessments of government performance across different sectors. Housing and road development were the areas most frequently identified as government successes, while healthcare and agriculture also received positive assessments.

Corruption emerged as the area attracting the highest level of criticism. Healthcare management and the cost of living were also among the issues respondents identified as government shortcomings.

Healthcare featured on both the list of areas viewed positively and those attracting criticism, indicating differing assessments of the sector among respondents.