ODM Moves to Strengthen Coastal Base Following Raila Odinga’s Death

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has launched a campaign to reinforce its political influence in Kenya’s Coast region ahead of the Magarini by-election, following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga.

Senior party officials, led by interim leader Dr Oburu Oginga and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, met over the weekend in Mombasa to rally delegates and reaffirm ODM’s grassroots strength. The meeting also served to boost support for Harrison Kombe, the party’s candidate in the 27 November Magarini by-election, whose 2022 victory was annulled by the courts.

Governor Nassir, who also serves as ODM’s deputy party leader, reaffirmed the party’s commitment to democratic principles, devolution, and human rights. “Our resolve is unwavering,” he said. “We are determined to ensure ODM remains the dominant political force in this region.”

The party faces a critical test as it adjusts to life without Raila, who died on 15 October in India. He had built strong support across the six coastal counties through his advocacy for land reform and devolution, issues that continue to resonate deeply with local communities.

Analysts are divided on ODM’s prospects. Political commentator Stephen Odiagga believes the party’s core support remains intact, noting that no major defections have occurred among Raila's coastal allies. However, he warned that ODM’s unity will depend on how effectively regional leaders can maintain cohesion.

Others are less optimistic. Political analyst Kauli Mwatela described the current leadership as politically adrift, lacking the unifying presence Raila once provided. 

“They now have to fend for themselves,” he said, warning that internal divisions could weaken ODM’s dominance if not addressed.

The 2022 general election exposed some of these challenges. While ODM retained the governorships of Mombasa, Kilifi, and Tana River, it lost ground in Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta. In the latter, Andrew Mwadime, a former ODM member who ran as an independent after a disputed nomination process, won the governor’s seat. 

In Kilifi and Kwale, rival parties such as the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) made significant gains, highlighting shifting political dynamics in the region. Despite these setbacks, ODM officials remain confident. Kwale County chairperson Sammy Ruwa pointed to the party’s well-established grassroots structures and praised Governor Nassir’s growing influence, suggesting his leadership could be central to guiding the party through this transition.

The upcoming Magarini by-election is being viewed as a key test of ODM’s strength. Kombe’s campaign has drawn strong backing from senior party figures, including national chairperson Gladys Wanga and Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, the former Mombasa governor and long-time Raila ally.

Joho, now heading the Ministry of Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs, reflected on the enduring bond between Raila and the Coast region.

“There is a serious historical background to our relationship that not everybody can understand,” he said, noting that the political ties built over decades may continue to shape local loyalties.